Written by Alan Colley, founding member of Host2Host and Fire Lookout host in Tiller, OR
Hello fellow hosts!
At the founding of Host2Host, we committed to keeping our eyes on upcoming trends that likely would impact your short-term rental business. Here is some information that you may not have seen.
First off, just what is a “weak signal”? My good friend and futurist, Rebecca Ryan, founder and president of NEXT Generation Consulting, Inc. puts it this way. “A weak signal is the first indicator of a change or an emerging issue that may become significant in the future. Monitoring for weak signals is critical to preparing for the future.”
Have you listened to the winds of change? Ever put your ear to the proverbial ground and predicted some of the changes coming around the bend? Futurist Rebecca Ryan and her cohorts do just that for a living. She tunes into the news and murmurings from the broader business community and predicts the future.
Of the five weak signals Rebecca and her panel of futurists have identified for 2023, there are two which I believe have particular bearing on those of us who have short-term rentals - the environment, and the shift in work patterns. Dig deeper into their observations here.
Labor - Unionization, talent shortage, work patterns
From Rebecca’s post: The permanent adoption of work-from-home programs decreases central business district (CBD) office occupancy rates by 30% or more. (Gulp) This reduces tax revenues and creates downtowns that are bustling only on Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays as well as the Donut Effect, which drives up suburban home prices around large cities.
This has planning, zoning, and redevelopment implications. Will downtowns become neighborhoods? Can Home Owner Associations (HOAs) prohibit residents from working full time from their residences? Will employees who injure themselves while working from home be able to file Workers Comp claims?
In Portland, we are definitely seeing the fallout from these policies. Our vacancy rate in the Central Business District now stands at 26%, the highest in recent history. Businesses, declining to renew leases in the central district combined with those employees choosing to work remotely have big impacts on the future of cities as we have come to know them. It’s distinctly possible that permitting and tax regulations will be given new scrutiny as the revenues begin to dry up. Like many cities across the country, Portland is making efforts to draw folks back by reframing the CBD as an entertainment district through events like the Portland Winter Festival of Lights from February 3-11th.
Environment - Protection, quality, pollution, waste disposal
There are a number of sub-signals under this one. Climate change is a high priority, of course, but waste and pollution get serious attention, too. Regarding extreme weather events, the best thing hosts can do right now is to be prepared. Do all in your power to keep guests safe and comfortable if and when they happen. Create an emergency plan, stock up with the essentials both for yourself and for the folks staying at your rental. Communicate with guests when bad weather is in the forecast to be sure they know the best way to be ready during a severe weather event should it come your way.
These days it makes sense for all of us to pay attention to consumables and how we dispose of waste. We may not be perfect at it, but anything in that direction can only benefit us all.
These signals may not sound like good news on the surface, but I believe that being forewarned is good forearmed, right? As advocates for good regulations for short-term rentals, we are committed to paying attention!
If you want to hear more from Rebecca and NEXT Generation Consulting, please check out this link. I think - no - I know you will be energized and inspired.
Quotes and comments from “Signals”: Copyright © 2023 by NEXT Generation Consulting, Inc. Used with permission.
